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! H J. CALCULATIONS ON EELATIVE FORM OF CEACK TWO-YEAR-OLDS FE0M A FIGURE SYSTEM : : i fi j t : i j : 1 . j i , ; i , i : i . i New York, December 12. No wonder there is a difference of opinion regarding the prospects of the coming three-year-olds and speculation on their Itossibilities in the stakes to come. Looking over the records of the best during their two-year-old career from a time and weight standpoint, it is discoveied some of them show a distinct preference for certain tracks, which makes a solution somewhat confusing. The line taken, however, .is on a fast track proposition, witli atmospheric conditions as nearly the same as can possibly lie calculated. Baces in heavy or slow going are jwt given any consideration, as a second rate horse will occasionally beat a higher-class horse ovT a heavy track. There are virtually seven or eight horses entering their three-year-old career that are so closely matched on their best performances, that the slightest incident or accident would decide the result of a race. The seven include Sun Briar, 1app, "Tip-pity AVitchet. Escoba, Lncullite, Lanius. War Cloud and Jack Hare Jr. In the races figured upon, races over straight courses at Belmont Park and Aqueduct have been eliminated, as atmospheric conditions are so changeable .at these courses that records from a time basis are deceptive. Hence the records alluded to were taken over courses with one turn or more. Beginning with a foundation of "3Q0" points and a uniform weight of 110 pounds, the table will show that. Papp was the best lxirse at Saratoga with a mark of "91. while Sun Briars best race over a fast track was but 280. On a slow or heavy track, however. Sun Briar proved superior to Papp. This was nrobably due to the fact that soft going suited Sun Briar owing to his leg ailments. In their only race at Saratoga over a fast track, Papp beat Sun Briar, but it is just possible the latter was a trifle short of work upon that occasion, as, he showed a wonderful burst of speed for about five-eighths, after which he tired badly. After that he showed more speed and stayiiig ability - thau Papp in all his races but unfortunately not one of the races was over a fast track. Hence the question is still unsolved, whether Papp was a better horse than Sun Briar over." a fast track, or not, but the probabilities are that he was as a two-year-old. In the mud Sun Briar was the better. WAR CLOUD raied-highly,- There was little difference, however, in the records of papp, War Cloud and Jack Hare Jr., over a fast track at Saratoga. If the three should meet in a nice at even weights over the same course, it is probable that War Cloud would be the choice, as lie showed decided improvement later in the year and, in any event, the figures indicate there was not more than one length between War Cloud and Papp at Saratoga, with Jack Hare Jr. a close con-i tender. With Sun Briar iu such a race it would become more perplexing, as his early speed might have considerable bearing on the result, but it would favor War Cloud more than either of the others, as he has shown his capacity for a long route, while there is a doubt about either Papp. or Jack Hare Jr. going a long distance successfully. These deductions would indicate that under any conditions, excepting a heavy or slow track, War Cloud would probably win such a race over the Saratoga course. Skipping Belment and arriving at Laurel, neither Papp nor Sun Briar raced then?, but War Cloud and Jack Hare Jr. did and Jack Hare Jr.s best race there was a trifle better than that of War Cloud, but tin- margin was so slight that the merest interference would make either one of them beat the other. It was at Laurel that Tippity Witchet loomed up into prominence. He ran such consistent and noteworthy races that his three-year-old prospects wore considered bright enough for John Sanford to bit- him at public auction. The figures of Tippity AVitchet at Laurel indicate his being within a" length of either AVar Cloud or Jack Hare Jr. at three-quarters and over a longer course holds Jack Hare Jr. safely, having beaten him iu a subsequent race at Pimlico at a mile. Hen; AVar Cloud looms up again as he vanquished Tippity AVitchet at Pimlico in a mile race, beating him easily. This indicates that at Saratoga AATar Cloud is a dangerous opponent of Papps and that at Laurel and Pimlico he holds both Tippity- AVitchet and Jack Han; Jr. safe, especially over a mile raute. LANIUS AMONG THE FOREMOST. It was not until Laurel opened that Lanius hung up figures that were worthy of his being classed among the foremost two-year-olds. Over a three-quarters course at Pimlico. Lanius figures to beat Jack Hare Jr. and would run exceedingly close to AVar Cloud.. But it is doubtful if he could overcome AVar Cloud in a mile race. The figures of Lanius at both Laurel and Pimlico do not quite come up to those of Tippity AVitchet, both calculated for a mile race. Hence, AVar Cloud appears to hold Lanius safely at even weights, leaving him still- at -the ton of the two-year-olds in mile races positively. It" may be that Papp and Sun Briar will .develop between their two and three-year-old form and live up to their sprinting ability iu longer races, but AVar Cloud already has proved his quality In that respect, the other two are uncertainties. There art; but two more to be analyzed. Escojtia and Lncullite. Escoba ran, in several stakes at Saratoga and Papp-DG.lt him upon each occasion. He also beat him at Belmont Park. It must be admitted, however, that none of these events were run over a fast track, but in going that was lie-lieved to suit Papp and be against Escoba. AVhat the hitter will do with Papp on a fast track is yet to be decided. At Jamaica Lncullite hung up one good performance. At Saratoga he met with an accident. No true line can he gathered on his future, lie was considered a real fine horse. Summing uy, it appears as if War Cloud is the most promising three-year-old for next year. He lias answered every requirement that makes up a good horse, by displaying speed in sprint races, going a longer route and carrying high weight. The following short table will give some idea of the closeness of the lest two-year-olds of last year, the records being taken from a time and weight standpoint on a basis of 110 pounds each: Horse. AVt. Saratoga. Laurel. Pimlico. Aqueduct. Jamaica. Lexington. AVar Cloud -.110 5 1-2 f -2SS. 3-4 m-294. 1 m-300. Papp 110 3-4 m-291 5 1 -281 Sun Briar 110 3-4 m-2S0 Tippity AVitchet 110 1 m-295. 1 m-294 Lanius 110 1 m-290. 3-4 m-299. 3-1 m-290 Jack Hare Jr. 110 5 1-2 f -288. 3-4 m-29S. 3-4 m-291. 3-4 m-2S0 Lncullite 310 5 1-2 f -290 Escoba 110 5 1-2 f -280. The highest, figures denote the best, races over course. In such cases distance has to be the con-each course, one pound being the usual concession eluding factor iu calculations, as well as the prob-for each point indicated by the figures, though able running of the races, as regards paeoinnking or the concession will.ndt always apply when a sprint- pacemakers, added to intelligent trainers instrnc-cr with a high figure is meeting a horse over a mile tions and jockeyship.
