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; ; ■ • • • i ; . ; I • t t - l i l i 1 " j r : 1 1 . J . I t I . • I , 1 i - FIRST FOALS AND FOLLOWING FOALS Analysis of Racing Results Seems to Sustain Prejudice Ag-ainst First Produce of Mares. The Stud I.ooks afford a splendid field for the study- and solution of hiomeiricnl problems, and one of these problems is the determination of relative value of first foals. For example. Brown argues that first foals are not e.pial in racing merit to i those of subs iitK-nt birth rank. Whereupon Jones replies that the extensive list of first foals which have distinguished themselves on the turf conveys the impression that there are no grounds foe presuming inferiority of first-horns. A heated argument follows, accompanied by the citation of tlie names of many celebrities. Jones says: "What alKitit Touchstone. Filho da Iuta. Melbourne. Satirist. The Danai. Panic! Ollourkc. Wild Dayr.-ll. Favonius. Wool Winder. Rack Sand, and Jay Crusader, all. excepting Melbourne. Derby and st. Leger ariaaera and first foals. Thea there was Vedette, a first-born, and Surefoot. and Bea-digo. and Hamilton. too. Werent they good enough." "Pretty fair." says Itriuvn. "but you have forgotten all abnwt Tlie Flying Dutchman. Voltigeur. Ncwminster. Stockwell. Tlu.riiianby. Caller On. Lord Clifd.u. Blair Athol. Madiatear, Lord I.y.,11. Achievement. Wenlock. Marie Stuart. Donoastcr. Bead pr, Ormonde. Petrarch. Melton. I.a Fteebe, Isinglass, r.-isiinmon. Flying Fox. Sceptre. Pretty Polly. I.ayardo. Swynford. l.eniberg. Cicero. Oiby. Tracery. Priace Palatine. Pommcrn, Gainsborough. Keysoc. Sunstar and Grand Parade, to say nothing of Is.momy. ialopin, St. Simon and Tlie T.-trarch. Not one of them was a first foal." Notwithstanding this f. rmidahle list. Jones, relying on the loose arguments of the essayists, remains unconvinced, and Drown, on tiie other hand, retires unshaken in his prejudice against first foals. Neither has .lone anything to solve the problem. It never seems to oeeur to either of the partisans that every mare that breeds at all must have a first foal. She need not necessarily produce a second, B ad the chances of tier bringing forth a third, fourth, fifth -irth. seventh, eighth, am! s,. ,,n become less with each succeeding birth rank until it reaches Bero. Drown, it will he observed, swamps Jones by an aggregation .if birth ranks. That is. he jots all the subsequent foals against the first-liorns. which wont satisfy the biometri-cian. In fact both Drown and Jones fail to leak at the question from a point of expectancy. Kvery fertile niare has a first foal; therefore it follows that if first-borns are as good as the latter offspring, then they should numerically be e.pial. and in some cases far exceed, the foals of any other birth rank in any given list of great winners. bet us now apply this test to the Derby and St. T,eger for the past sixty years. The two races give 1-1 winners, including the dead-heaters. Harvester and St. Cutien. for the Derby of 1SS4. Certain horses wen both races, and there! -re are counted twice. DERBY AND ST. LEGER WINNERS, 1860-1919. First Foals. Cay Crusader CD. Dock Sand 2. Wool Winder. Favonius — total, • winners. S.con.l foals. Cainshorouglt 3, Spearmint. Sainfoin. Ayrshire. M-Iton 2. Siiotover. Kingcraft. Blair Atbd 2, Hermit. Trouthe.-k. Challacoatbe. Seabreeze. Wenlock. 1cro Comez. St. Albans- total. IS. Third foals. Aboyeur. Tagalie. Orhy. Flyinj Fox S, Donovan 21. Dlue Cown. Cladiatcur 21. Da-yardo. Wildfowlor. The lambkin. Itobert the Devil. Jaaaette total IS. Fourth foals. Fifinella. Demberg. Minorii. Persimmon if. Merry Hamilton. St. Catien. Sir lievys. Ceorge Frederick, Doaeaster, Creeaorae, Bwabar Ifs. Sign..iineita. BtaCk J.-ster. Tracery. Irin.-e Ialatine. Pretty Polly. Dorkiea, Kilwarlin. Dutch Oven. Craig Millar. Haw i liornden. Formosa, Caller u - total. 24. Fifth foals. Sunstar. Cicero. St. Aniaiit. Or monde 2i. IriM|iioi.s 21. g llthcr. Hurry On. Night Hawk. Toar Majesty. Lord Clilden — total. 12. Sixtli Coals P., mm. -in 2. GaltCe Mule 21, Sit Visto 21. H:rvestcr. St. Dlaise. K.ttleilrum. Key-so,-. Bayaa dOr, Apology total. 12. ve.;h foals Rrattd Parade. Common 2, Sef-1 ton. Lord I.yon 21 total, 0. Eighth foals Volodyovski. Diamond Jubilee 2. Isinglass 21. Sir Hugo. Demi Or. Thormanby. Bwyaford, Memoir. Achievement — total. 11. Ninth foaP Caiactacu-. Sceptre. Throstle, Da I le. I.e. Ossi.-tn. Petrarch, Ilannali, The Marquis— t. tal. s. Tenth foals Aid Patrick. Ladaa, Silvio 2. Jalo- pm. Macaroni-total, i. l-.lev.nih foals-Marie Stuart — total, 1. Twelfth foals Jed.lah- total. 1. Sixte.uili fouls Pretender— total. 1. NUMBER OF FOALS IN EACH BIRTH RANK. Counting tlie dual winners twice, the mares which bred the above 121 Derby and St. I-eg.-r victors produced 1.20S offspring, distribut.il as to! ban aa reaarda birth rank. I should add that In ises which were foaled abroad are conn.-I as the lasi offspring of their respective dams for the pi-.pos.. of this investigation. Thus Cladiat.-urs dan. is only reckoned as having hail three and Tracerys .Lin, four foals. Favonius was the sole off-;n in of his dam Bephj r. -Ml the other mar ea app-aring in tlie Stud Beak as brood mares and eiit.-iing into the data with Which we are . ouceiii-.l have had their full nuui-Tel of foals assigned to them i to IMC. v.liicu was the latest yv:.r for birth -.1 a hcrse r ui ire •, I lifi.-.l to take pari in the i.-rV. or St I., ei of las- year. 1st foals 121 31th foals SI 2nd " 120 12th " «J trd " lie i:itiv " g| 4th 112 nth " a 5th " DC.» l.itli " 14 Slh " 103 Ditli " s 7th " If ITtli " t; stii "■ n uth " a !lt!i " S3 19th " 1 10th " 74 The next step is to determine how each birth rank has fulfilled ils numerical obligations. We can -. .it a glaace. thai the winning first foals as judged bj aggregates are heatea by erery birth rank ba.k to the s.-cnlh. The eighth and ninth foals ha vi also a higlmr wiuniug incidence than tlie fust foals. I.ut something more informative is requited than can be gtoaacd from aggregates. THE ANTICIPATED AND ACTUAL. We want to know how far each birth rank lias . keeeded or fallen lieliind expectation. Tlie aaewer ,r;iy be obtained by multiplying the total numlier of foals iu aach birth rank by 121 and dividing tUe produce by 1.20S. Having done this the expected winners and actual winners in each birth link are placed side by side, thus; Bxpected Actual Wimp-is. Winners. l*t foals nun C, 2nd foals iL js; 3rd foals i i.r, r, 1 4th foals 11.2 24 5th foals Ki.i i-_ , •hli foals lo.-l 12 ; 7th foals ! .S i; Mb foals 1 ;; 11 !-tl foals S.;5 S ] 10th foals 7.4 « 1 1 1 1, foals ."...". 1 12th foals 4.:: i lath foals ;. 1 || 14th foals U.l 0 loth to*!* 1.4 0 1 lit It foals 0.S 1 17th foals O.r. 0 Mh foals 0.2 0 1 Itth foals 0,1 o 1 Tlie numbers with which we a:-e dealing are somewhat small, ami hence the actual winners plot out into a not loo regular curve. Still, they show, so far as the Derby and the St. l.eger of the last sixty years are concei ned. that first foals have been at a marked disadvantage as compared witli the second, third, fourth, fifth and sixth offspring. The seventh, eighth, ninth and tenth come fairly close to expectnacy. i. e.. when the curve is leveled I out to the mean between the s-v.-nih and eighth i foals, and have done niu-li belter relatively and actually than first foala. We see. then, from this , investigation thai the prc.jiulke against first foal-is not altogether unfounded. It is. of curse, true that a mare is leal likely to be suitably mated in her first than in her subsequent stud yens, but after aUowiag for this fact •!• there still remains a balan.-.- against first foals as compared witli the secoad, third, fourth fiftli and sixtli birth ranks. It may be urged thai Boebaa,_a first fool, witli a little luck would have won either the Derby or the St. I.cger: that Hampton was a far better horse than his younger brother. Sir P.ev.vs. and thai Albert Victor, a Bother first foal, was qaite a* good as his brother Uearge Frederick. This is aU trnite trae. Out the answer is that you can only compare things which are comparable with each other. If you want to liiing iu liii.-han you must include all tlie placed hois.-s iu the Uerhy and St Leger. and tie same applies to Albert Victor, which ran a dead h.-at witli King of the Forest for tinned place in the Derby to Favonius. The inclusion ,,f Hampton would entail the bringing in of a large number of other races and hosts of liaises and I.r. od mares. So the result iu the end would probably remain pretty much the same as the figures given for the I last sixty years of the Derby and St. Leger.— "Mankato" iu Manchester Sportius Chronicle,
