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BREEDING RACE HORSES ON PAPER CONSIDERATION OF THE PROPAGANDA AND FALLACY FALLACYOF OF THE FIGURE SYSTEM11 THE CASE OF CARBINE CARBINEENGLISH ENGLISH CLASSIC APPLICATION WORTHLESS WORTHLESSBROTHERS BROTHERS OF SPECIAL FIGURE91 HORSES By W S V O S B U R G H Frequently I am asked what I think of the various theories on the breeding of race horses and particularly the Figure System I thought I had expressed my opinion sufficiently more than ten years ago and felt no necessity for repeating it especially as I had no personal interest in tin matter Besides I believe while the public likes a cleancut statement of a ease they hate a perpetual nagging The foe still sullenly firing firingHowever However it seems as if much of the talk about the Figure System was propaganda spread abroad to facilitate the sale of horses The selling of horses seems to be the sole aim and end of life with so many people connected with racing Newspaper articles are mostly inspired inspiredThe The age is so mercantile that many men can no longer appear in print without a hidden purpose Of these the Figure System apostles are isi some instances most conspicuous and while in all probability they will deny it I shall be reluctant to believe that their denials would qualify them for topweights in the Ananias and Snpphira Handicap HandicapThe The propaganda is not a new method in sporting journalism Years ago Mr Peter O Kellogg utilized it He would begin a series of letters to the sporting newspapers over a noni de pltimo on the merits of some strain say the Clays or the Mambrino Patcliens for example This would provoke some one to reply to the delight of the editor perhaps short of reading matter in a dull season Then would ensue a controversy over the merits of the stock in dispute and after it had waxed hot for a considerable time and the stock had public attention drtiwn to it Mr Kellogg would announce a sale by auction of the Clays or Mambrino Patehens or whatever strain hud been the subject of the controversy controversyThere There are two classes of people who profess belief in the Figure System one of which we might classify as dreamers the other as schemers The dreamers are that class who live in a rosecolored mist of pleasant delusion They should know better hut do not They employ some other person to think for them and accept his dictums Few of them can recall a pedigree beyond one generation If they knew more of pedigrees they would have less faith in theory The schemers are that class who better informed may doubt the potency of the Figure System but find ij more profitable ta mak it v pmim Miida They are 3rt5l 3rt5lr r ganiH tti sell horSes boise dealeivOiTiisquerading lii the clothes of experts lut then it is only in savage countries that people and their vices go without clothing A man who lias an ax to grind in the sale of horses is1 not qualified as an adviser He is about as ineligible as a lady would be to membership in a secret soclety Of course lie would resent being called a horse dealer and assume another name so does food after it is digested digestedThe The entry of a man of reputed wealth in tiie arena of racing is the signal for a general foray upon him Everyone becomes anxious to sell him a horse They camp on his trail delngo him witli corre ¬ spondence men supposed to he in his confidence are sought to use their influence with him even to tin extent of getting a share of the profits as a reward for their mediation In short the new turfman is a mark there is a belief that he lias money to burn and no pains are spared to relieve him of it itNow Now there probably are no men as credulous as gentlemen of wealth who enter the field of racing They may be men of great shrewdness in the financial or commercial world indeed many of them bear evidence of that in the fact that they have been the architects of their own fortunes But when they engage in racing or breeding they seem willing to believe anything told them by persons whom they believe to be experienced persons who are able to make an impression upon them themBAD BAD GUIDES FOR NOVICES IN RACING SPORT SPORTAt At the outset these gentlemen are apt to fall into the hands of every man who wants to sell a horse or worse still they fall into the hands of some academic horseman whose only accomplishment is a memory for pedigrees or a retailing of secondhand opinions He may know the difference between a chestnut horse and a hoise chestnut but if linked to ride a horse would not know which side of the animal to mount With such a tutor the gentleman is indoctrinated into all his tutors prejudices in favor of this strain or against that strain of blood of certain localities for breeding of certain crosses and perhaps the Figure System As might be expected the new owner is made to pay pretty dearly for his experience both in bad purchases and commissions commissionsThe The Figure System then is an excellent medium for the sale of horses by pointing to the most worthless brutes as members of the No 3 Family or the No S Family etc But it is mischievous in that it encourages new turfmen and breeders to buy in the indulgence of hopes which are seldom realized it is misleading But it does more It is being used as a propaganda to discredit the old American strains which cannot be traced to a mare with one of the numbers of the Figure System Tiie exclusion in England of American horses which do not trace to animals registered in tiie first volumes of the General Stud Book was an official act but this later act is propaganda a blow at our stock interests in our own country in the interest of selling English stock and as such is a matter of public concern concernTheories Theories on breeding are well enough when they delight the fancy without doing violence to reason To believe In the Figure System is to assume that the primordial protoplasm has passed down unimpaired and without modification from a mare existing two hundred years ago through more than twenty generations to the animal existing today To assume this would mean that sires cut no figure in inheritance that all racing excellence is derived from mares To deviate from rational statement is a privilege usually granted to maniacs and faddists but the Figure System faddists abuse the privilege The fulmjnations of some of them have elevated them from the herd of harmless theorists to the dignity of bores boresIf If we assume with the Figure System that the speed and stamina of our horses of the present day are traceable to a mare existing 200 years ago it might be taken to mean that we have no speedier horses than then existed That would refute the argument that racing improves the breed of horses Of course the most rabid apostle of the system will not assume that but it is simply ridiculous to look for racing merit in a horse because his maternal line traces to the Layton Barb mare No 4 or the dam of the Two True Blues Xo 3 mares that lived and died wver 200 years ago Yet that is what the Figure System people do and it strikes us quite as funny as the player in Sliakespeares Hamlet who weeps over the death of Hecuba who had been dead a thousand years yearsAs As to the theory of breeding from Eclipse Herod and Matchem that is already domj automatically every man who breeds a mare to a horse combines the trinity of equine saints for every thoroughbred horse has traces of each But to consider their influence in a pedigree of today seems reaching back too far Eclipse was foaled in 1714 Herod in 1758 Matchem in 1748 They are removed from fiftten to twenty generations from the pedigree of the average horse of today and with all the crossing that has taken place in the meantime it Is difficult to believe that the influence of any one of them is a poten ¬ tiality To quote Eclipse Herod or Matchem is going back too far at too late a day It sounds like the excuse the French girl gave for declining an invitation to a party She said she could not go as that evening her father and mother were going to be married marriedBLIND BLIND PIG SOMETIMES FINDS AN ACORN ACORNI I have no doubt a man can breed great race hordes on the principles of the Figure System But it will not be because of the Figure System a blind pig will occasionally find an acorn It is quite well known that breeders who followed the system have been conspicuous for their failures to breed great race horses while many of the most successful breeders have ignored all systems The late Mr J O Donner a steward of the Jockey Club and his friend Mr Kicker collaborated in a book pub ¬ lished some years since entitled Modern Pedigrees In the introduction they stated statedThe The mares of Lord Falmouth and the performance of their produce are given because Lord Falmotith is regarded as haYing bred on certain theories which we have taken pains to investigate with the re ¬ sulting conviction that there was more success due to his mechanics than to any theories theoriesThe The late Mr C Bruce Lowe who first exploited the Figure System 1SS9 was an undoubted gentleman and sincere in his theories for a mere theorist he certainly was The lute Cnpt Merry of California became acquainted with Mr Lowe in Australia and in a letter to The Spirit of the Times In its issue of January 7 1899 page 034 lie recalls a dinner at Pettys Hotel Sydney given by Mr Wil ¬ liam Gannon to Mr Frank Reynolds a breeder at Toeal on the Patterson River who had bred Mr Gan ¬ nons colt Melos which had just won the Australian Jockey Club Derby DerbyIn In the course of the evening states dipt Merry Mr Gannon who thought the world of Lowe asked Mr Lowe if he had seen Carbine adding the colt was for sale at 3 DIM guineas Let him alone replied Mr Lowe lie conies under the red But Mr Smith here and apt Merry have looked at him both liked him except for bis hocks Oh you want to breed stayers and you cant afford to purchase a horse that is nearly all red said Mr Lowe What do you mean by red I asked Well I mean a horse whose tabulated pedigree shows more sprinters than distance horses an ¬ swered Mr Lowe I mark stayers in blue blueMr Mr Gannon was a firm believer in Mr Lowe he therefore declined to buy Carbine and the horse went to Melbourne where Donald Wallace blissfully ignorant of Mr I wes red and blue theories paid 8000 guineas for him and in three years he won thirty races of the value of 140000 and 225000 in side bets including the Melbourne Cup the fastest and best race ever run by any horse at that distance Counting what lie lost on Melos mid what was won on Carbine Mr Gannon was out of pocket not less than 300000 by taking Bruce Lowes advice for Carbine beat Melos six times and Melos beat him twice twiceThe The Figure System resumed Capt Merry was inaugurated at Mr Frank Reynolds farm on the Patterson River nearly ten years before Mr Lowe started for England to publish his book In all that time the only horse produced there witli any pretension to class was Melos But witli Alwrcorn a Continued on third page BREEDING RACE HORSES ON PAPER Continued from first page year older than Carbine of his own age he was indisputably overmatched Mr Keynolds became so up ¬ set mentally over the failure of this infallible Figure System that he was threatened with paresis and iiis brother sent him off to Japan and for a year he was not allowed to look into a book bookapt apt Merry further states when Mr Lowe came to California he often met him at the home of the late Mr S G Keed In fcilks Mr Lowe contended that Lexingtons success as a sire was due entirely to Glencoe mares In spite of the fact says Capt Merry that I showed him that six of Lexing ¬ tons best sons Tom Bowling Harry Bassett Kingfisher Preakness Tom Ochiltree and Brown Prince had not a drop of Glencoe blood He would not have it He was a man of very strong prejudices and like all theorists very much in love with his theories theoriesFIGUKE FIGUKE SYSTEM APPLIED TO ENGI1SH CLASSICS CLASSICSThe The Figure System makes the Derby and St Leger the test of merit the conclusions are based on these events Yet only three Derby winners have been sired by Derby winners in the last thirty years Hock Sand Grand Parade and Spiou Kop Only eight St Leger winners have been sired by St Leger winners in the last thirty years Since 1870 fifty years only thirteen Derby winners have been sired by a winner of the Derby or St Leger LegerNow Now it is a fact that most of the noted sires abroad were not Derby or St Leger winners and par ¬ ticularly so in recent years Many of them have been handicap winners 1olymelus the leading sire of 1920 was a handicap horse so was Isonomy Gallinule Sundridge Carbine Barcaldine Hampton Itose bery and Bend Or Here is a hastily compiled list of horses none of which won the Derby or the St Leger within the last fifty years but which sired Derby winners with the number of its winners sired by them No of NO of Derby ofDerby Derby DerbySire Sire Sire Won Winners Siro Sire Won Winners WinnersSired Sired t Sired SiredMarayas Marayas Biennial Stakes 1 Janissary St James Palace Stakes I ILeamington Leamington Two Chester Cups 1 Orine Eclipse Stakes 2 2Parmesan Parmesan Queens Vase Florizel II Manchester Cup Handicap 1 1Buccaneer Buccaneer Lincoln Plate 1 St Florian Duke of York Handicap 1 1Speculum Speculum Goodwood Cup 1 Carbine Melbourne Cup Handicap 1 1Hampton Hampton Goodwood Cup 3 Chalereux Cesarewitch Handicap 1 1Springfield Springfield Champion Stakes 1 St Frusquin Eclipse Stakes 1 1Master Master Kildare City and Suburban Handicap 1 Cyllene Ascot Cup 4 4Wisdom Wisdom Desmond July Stakes k 1 1Isoiiomy Isoiiomy Manchester Cup Handicap 2 Sundridge Boyal Stakes Handicap 1 1Barcaldine Barcaldine Northumberland P Hdp 1 Habelais Goodwood Cup 1 1St St Simon Ascot Cup Polymelus Cambridgeshire Handicap iJ iJKendal Kendal July Stakes 1 1The The Derby of 1SS4 resulted in a dead heat and division between St Gatien and Harvester neither of the sires of which won the Derby DerbyAnother Another feature of Mr Lowes Figure System is his selection of what he calls Sire Families viz Nos 3 8 11 12 and 14 It is held that no horse has been a success as n sire unless descended lii c the female line frfom one of these six families or inbred to them They admit Blacklock was an ex ¬ ception but claim he only succeeded by having sire blood in the minis to which he was bred bredRecent Recent years certainly do not confirm this theory Our leading winning sire of 1920 Fair Play is not of a sire family Nos 3 8 11 12 and 14 but he is No 9 and sired Man o War Star Shoot was also No 9 Hastings is 21 Hamburg 23 Himyar 2 Kingston 13 Peter Pan 2 Sysonby 9 Delhi 4 Celt 1 Domino 23 Hock Sand 4 Friar Hock 9 Ogdeu C Hanover was 15 his sire Hindoo 24 and his dam Bourbon Belle 15 his grandsire Virgil and Bonnie Scotland 20 and 10 respectively while Ben Brush had no number numberIn In Europe it is the same Many of the best sires of recent years have not belonged to the sire families Bayardo was No 10 Sunstar 5 Hoi Herode 1 The Petrarch 2 Cyllene 9 Sundridge 2 St Frusquin 22 Isonomy 19 Desmond 15 Bend Or 1 Gallinule 19 Persimmon 7 Hermit 5 Hampton 10 Flying Fox 7 Barcaldine 23 Chaucer 1 and Ormonde 10 10In In this country the socalled sire family No 12 has been notorious as producing the best race horses but the worst failures as sires It is better known as the Levity Family Salvator Leonatus Monarchist Luke Blackburn Lougstreet The Bard Volturiio Tammany and Ornament all tremendous race horses were failures in the stud studIf If the Figure Systems sire families had prevailed in England the following successful sires would never have been used None of these were of Nos 3 S 11 12 and 14 viz Vidette Hermit Hampton Parmesan Orlando Glencoe Sir Hercules Ion Melbourne Lord Clifden Bend Or Blair Athol Rubens Voltigeur Sweetmeat Isonomy The Baron Bay Middleton Whalebone Blacklock Doncaster The Tetrarch Bayardo Camel Barcaldine All of these horses have exercised an enormous influence In America Fair Play would not have been used and we should have had no Man o War WarV V HOW WORTHLESS BROTHERS SHOW TIP FIGURE SYSTEM SYSTEMThe The inferiority of full brothers to great race horses is another stumbling block to the Figure Sys ¬ tem Foxhall Sir Dixon Hanover etc all had full brothers They were bred the same but were worthless It was probably to offset this that Mr Lowe invented his absurd saturation theory in which he held that mating a mare with the same horse successive seasons produced deterioration in the offspring It gave his figure theory what Lord Beactmsfield described as a scientific frontier when alarm regarding Russias designs upon India constrained a British ministry to secure Afghanistan But the theory will not hold Iroquois Sir Dixon Spendthrift Gold Heels Tom Bowling Parole Roseland and in Australia Commotion and Carbine were younger brothers to other horses Emperor of Norfolk and El Itio Hey were seventh and ninth foals of the ten consecutive matings of the same sire and dam Iroquois was the sixth of consecutive matings of Lexington and Maggie B B Sensation and Onondaga fourth and fifth Carbine a fourth Hegret was third her brother Thunderer the Futurity winner fourth Tom Bowling was fourth Sir Dixon and Spendthrift third of consecutive matiugs of the same sire and dum These are a few of many instances instancesThe The late Hon W C AVhitney once expressed to me the opinion that the Figure System was a good scheme to sell a book and continuing he added It is absurd to pretend that any one line of mares should continue to be prepotent through hundreds of years without being modified by continued crosses This conversation occurred at Mr AVhitneys residence one evening in December 1902 I recall the date having returned that evening from Hartford and Mr Whitney had asked me to write something for The Telegraph which he said had been purchased by Col George Harvey who upon losing his position on The AVorld he Mr AVliitney had given a position on the Metropolitan Street Railway and who had desired to return to journalism Mr Harvey is now mentioned as ambassador to the Court of St James JamesThe The Figure System theorists are propagandists without evidence or argument Their faith is a territory to which they oppose the invasion of biology physiology or reason They support their theory by citing one apparent aflirmative and construe all else to fit their theory They confound exceptions witli rules and attempt to prove general propositions from particular cases Conclusions should be based eu a large number of observations to be of any value But the Figure System theorists confound ex ¬ ceptions with rules and accidents with essential properties Every great race horse is seized upon to prove their theory when perhaps there are a hundred bred the same way which are failures and which they ignore preferring inference to evidence evidenceThere There are some things in nature it never was intended men should know If they did it would dis ¬ order the harmony of the universe and one of these is a method by which success in breeding race horses can be reduced to something approaching perfection Sexcontrol is another of those theories of which we often read and which if secured the proportion of males would be so great that the race would soon become extinct But people to whom such absurdities as Figure Systems and sexcontrol seem plaus ¬ ible are rarely to be moved by appeals to reason Those who are willing to be deceived are seldom grateful to those who would undeceive them and their delusions are irremovable by either argument or evidence Many years ago I was inclined to believe there was potency in the Figure System In fact I published it in 1884 long before Mr C lruce Lowe began its exploitation Later I saw the fallacy it involved and lost all faith in it because it became apparent that it was untenable Thus the apostle be ¬ came an apostate But I would prefer being ail iconoclast to being considered an idolater for the dis ¬ covery of error is a step to a knowledge of fact Accordingly I can only repeat what I said some years that the Figure System is of those delusions ago one systematized professing a science which we oc ¬ casionally admire as entertaining frequently value as curious generally regard as fanciful and always dismiss as misleading In the words of the late Mr Chuck Connors It promises you a peach and hands you a lemon
