view raw text
DERBY BETTING VAGARIES ♦ History Repeats Itself in Case of Whitneys Ante -2 Post Favorites. i Top Flight Follows the Way of Equipoise — Review of Fluctuation of "Future Book" Odds on This Years Derby. » By the same decree of fate which eliminated the possibility of one Whitney filly repeating the victory of another in the Kentucky Derby a repetition of history was recorded in the failure of another Whitney future book favorite to get to the post in the classic. It was just a week before the running of the 1931 Derby that Equipoise, defeated favorite in the Preak-ness, was declared out. There was not necessarily a parallel in the causes which affected Equipoise and Top Flight as Equipoise developed an ailment which retired him for the remainder of the season while no question developed as to Top Flights soundness, although she was beaten decisively in her first start. Irrespective of causes the circumstances of the late eliminations of Top Flight and of Equipoise before her, were two more chapters in the trend of events which in recent years seems to ordain that the best of the three-year-olds carrying the colors of Cornelius V. Whitney, carrying on for his father, cannot get into the Derby. In 1929, after Boojum and Whichone had finished one two in the Hopeful Stakes, it was thought that 1930 would be a Whitney Derby year, but both were out of training when the 1930 Derby was run. The circumstances as to the betting favoritism of the Whitney stars were practically the same in the cases of Equipoise and Top Flight. So great was Top Flights success in 1931 that she was an early favorite in the 1932 futures, even against the tradition that "fillies dont win the Derby," the feat having been accomplished by only one, the Whitney-owned Regret. ONE-TWO FAVORITES. Top Flight and Tick On last fall finished one-two, close together, in the Pimlico Futurity, their last start of 1932, and that is how they stood in the Derby betting until last week, when a series of the most sensational events that have preceded a Derby in recent years occurred, closely related events which put out two of the three choices entirely, the two being the leading representatives of the rival eastern and western factions. Burning Blaze was the westerner. When Tom Shaw, the bell cow of the bookmakers, posted his first Derby odds simultaneously with the publication of the nominations, he made Top Flight and Tick On equal choices at 8 to 1, quoted Burning Blaze and Burgoo King at 20 and Sweeping Light, Economic and Lucky Tom at 25. Lucky Tom was the only one of the candidates of any standing which was kept in racing through the winter and engaged in the winter derbys. He won two of the three in which he started, but did not better his position as a bidder for the real Derby and went up in the betting. Shaws first 30 to 1 shots were Faireno, Indian Runner and Universe. Indian Runner was the first of these to get under way this year and his defeats eliminated him from consideration. On Post, stablemate of Tick On, and Big Beau were 40 to 1 in Shaws early book. For a time it looked as though On Post would develop into one of the favored candidates, but he did not make the progress expected of him in his training and Max Hirsch made this known in time to prevent a heavy play on him. War Plane, Larranaga, Morfair and Barcelona Pete were Shaws first 50-1 shots, and the first group he offered at 60 was composed of Bertjohn, Curacao, Microphone and Mad Frump, the latter a stablemate and possible running mate of Top Flight. Shaw quoted 100 to 1 against Gallant Sir, Portden, Delivered, Cabezo, Sekhmet, Proteus, Brother Joe, Snap Back, Pro Bono, Semaphore, Scotch Gold, Cold Check, Towee, Air Pilot, Black Board, Minton, Liberty Limited, Border Warrant, Clotho, Stepenfetchit and Over Time. REVISION OF BOOK. Less than a month after the foregoing prices were issued, Shaw revised his book, making Top Flight, 7-1; Tick On, 8-1; Burning Blaze, 15-1. He quoted 25-1 against Sweeping Light and Indian Runner and 30-1 against Burgoo King, Universe, Faireno, Economic and Big Beau. By this time Brother Joe had dropped to 40-1 and was held on a par with Morfair, On Post and War Plane. Liberty Limited had dropped only to 50-1, Lucky Tom had gone up to 50, and Cold Check, Cathop and Stepenfetchit were as good as 60. The first April quotations showed Top Flight still another point off, dropping to 6-1, Tick On to 7-1, the place and show prices on each being 3-1 and 2-1. It was reported about this time that owner C. V. Whitney had made a good bet on Top Flight, receiving 8 to 1. Burning Blaze was cut from 15-1 to 12-1. A few days later Shaw sliced Top Flight to 5-1, Tick On remaining at 7. Burning Blaze was cut to 10, Liberty Limited to 12, Brother Joe to 20 and Gallant Sir dropped to 60. On April 15 Top Flight was still 5-1 in Shaws book, but had dropped to 4-1 with Kearney. Both offered 7 1 against Tick On. Burning Blaze was 10-1 in one book and 8-1 in another. There was now only a couple of points between Burning Blaze and Liberty Limited for third place. Burgoo King, Sweeping Light and War Plane were cut slightly. Tom Kearneys Kentucky Derby-Preak-ness doubles quotations held some interest for players who like speculation of this kind. He offered 15-1 against Top Flight winning both, 20-1 against Tick On winning both, 40-1 for Burning Blaze or Liberty Limited. He offered 20-1 against the combination of Top Flight in the Derby and Tick On in the Preakness, 25-1 against their winning in reverse order. The next noticeable cut in the futures was on Gallant Sir, a son of Sir Gallahad III., owned by the Northway Stable. There must have been a good play on him, for his price dropped from 60-1 to 20-1 and in one book as low as 15-1. It was reported that the I owners had invested 00 across the board at 60, 20 and 10. The elimination of choices through mishap continued almost to the very eve of the Derby. On Wednesday preceding the race Universe, whose stock had soared since the New York race, wrenched the coffin joint of his left foreleg in a workout over the Derby distance and showed so little improve* ment the next day that it was decided to keep him out of the race. It seemed that only Tick On and the Bradley entry, among the most highly regarded, were to hold their own right on up to post time and, while the odds against these were tightened, there naturally developed more interest in some of the other candidates which were now considered to have a chance. The future books no doubt profited extensively by the withdrawal of three of the most prominent eligibles at a late hour, and if this had been a normal year in Derby speculation the elimination of Burning Blaze, Top Flight and Universe would probably have meant more profits than the future book operators have realized in many years. The first of the three choices to start was Tick On, and his defeat by Springsteel initiated the series of "casualties" which was to culminate a few days later in the incidents in New York and Kentucky, which eliminated Tick Ons two rivals entirely and made him, even though defeated, the outstanding first choice. There really was no disgrace attached to Tick Ons failure, disappointing as it was to those at Havre de Grace who backed him into odds-on favoritism. The event was the Shenandoah Purse, at a mile and seventy yards. Tick On was shuffled back going to the first turn, and after that was in trouble repeatedly. He had to go to the outside of the field and then finished well, beaten a length. On the day this race was run, April 27, Shaw was holding Top Flight at 4 to 1, Tick On at 5 to 1, and Burning Blaze at 5 to 1. After the Shenandoah the eastern bookmaker cut Top Flight to 3 to 1 and made Tick On and Burning Blaze equal second choices at 6 to 1. AFRIL 30 TRAGIC DAY. The following Saturday, April 30, was the most eventful and the most tragic of all preceding the Derby, for it was the day Top Flight failed in the Wood Memorial at Jamaica and Burning Blaze, though the winner of his race with a few Derby long shot eligibles at Churchill Downs, was cut down so that his withdrawal from the big event was made as soon as an examination of his injury could be made. Top Flights withdrawal was decided upon the day after her poor showing. There had not been a drastic cut in the price against Springsteel after his victory over Tick On, but the Wood Memorial, the Top Flight race, brought a new contender into the picture. Universe, winner of the Wood, was cut from 30-1 to 6-1, bringing him up to equal terms in the betting with Liberty Limited. Universe, a son of Infinite, owned by T. M. Cassidy, had shown a most impressive performance. Carrying 120 pounds, he led throughout the mile and seventy yards and, after disposing of Economic, one that had been looked upon with increasing favor, increased his margin as the end was reached. Universe had never been without a certain following, but he was retired so early in his first season that the rank and file of racing fans had perhaps forgotten that he had shown a good deal of class in some of the early juvenile stakes of 1931. There had been other passing events which redounded to the credit of another pair of easterners, Stepenfetchit and Over Time. Mrs. J. H. Whitneys Stepenfetchit won his first 31 start on April 14, and on the same day that Top Flight was beaten at Jamaica, her contemporary, carying the colors of another branch of the Whitney family, finished a close second to the sterling filly, Evening, in the Chesapeake Stakes at Havre de Grace, with Over Time third and Springsteel, Mad Frump and still other Derby eligibles in the beaten field. On the strength of this showing Stepenfetchits price dropped to 10-1 and Over Times to 15. Brother Joe and Burgoo King, the E. R. Bradley pair, were also cut to practically the same odds at about this time, not so much because of any brilliant accomplishments in racing as the result of strengthened confidence in them because of their satisfactory training.
