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HOW AN ENLISH CERTAINTY FAILED. Some years ago there was a horse called Black Arrow running in a race at Goodwood. He had only two competitors to beat. The kings jockey rode him and such a positive certainty did the race appear to be for him that backers had to bet odds of 100 to 7 on his winning that is to say, they had to risk 00 to win 5. Scores of little punters bet the "bookies" ,500 to 75 that he wins. The horses cantered to the starting post, the tapes went up and to the undisguised horror of the plungers the bad-tempered Black Arrow instantly whipped around and never ran a yard in the race. The plungers, of course, lost their money some of them many thousands of pounds and many little backers were ruined through their asinine folly of gambling heavily on a presumed certainty.