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FIRST FOAL PREJUDICE Biometrical Problem Considered Under Light of Records j Figures Rather Sustain the Argu ments Against Average Qual ¬ ity of FirstBorns j Here is a most Interesting thoughtful and ana ¬ lytical article by Maiikato the turf expert of tho Manchester Sporting Chronicle ChronicleThe The Stud Books afford a pplendid field for the study and solution of biometrical problems and one of these problems is the detcrminaton of rela ¬ tive value of first foals For example Brown argues that first foals are not equal in racing merit to those of subsequent birth rank rankWhereupon Whereupon loncs replies that the extensive list of first foals which have distinguished themselves on the turf conveys the impression that there are no grounds for presuming inferiority of firstborns firstbornsA A heated argument follows accompanied by the citation of the names of many celebrities Tones says What about Touchstone Filho da Puta Melbourne Satirist Tlie Baron Daniel ORourko Wild Dayrell Favonius Wool Winder Rock Sand and Gay Crusader all excepting Melbourne Derby and St Legor winners and first foals Then there was Vedette a firstborn and Snrefoot and Bon digo and Hampton too Werent they good enough V VPretty Pretty fair says Brown but you have for ¬ gottenall about Tlie Flying Dutchman Voltigour Newminster StoekweH Thotmanby Caller On Lord Clifdon Blair Athol Gladlateur Lord Ljpn Achievement Wenlock Marie Stuart Doncaster Bond Or Ormonde Petrarch Melton La Fleche Isinglass Persimmon Flying Fox Sceptre Pretty Polly Payardo Swynford Lemberg Cicero Orby Tracery Prince Palatine Pominern Gainsborough Keysoe Runstar and Grand Parade to say nothing of Isonomy Galopiu St Simon and The Tetrarch Not one of them was a first foal foalNotwithstanding Notwithstanding this formidable list Tones rely ¬ ing on the loose arguments of the essayists remains unconvinced and Brown on the other hand retires unshaken in his prejudice against first foals Neither has done anything to solve the problem problemIt It never seems to occur to either of the partisans that every mare that breeds at all must have a first foal She need not necessarily produce a second and the chances of her bringing forth a third fourth fifth sixth seventh eighth and so on become less with each succeeding birth rank until it readies zero Brown it will be observed swamps Tones by an aggregation of birth ranks ranksThat That is he pits all the subsequent foajs against the firstborns which wont satisfy the biometri cian In fact both Brown and Tones fail to lock nt the question from a point of expectancy K very fertile niare has a first foal therefore it follows that if firstborns are as good as the latter off ¬ spring then they should numerically be equal and in some cases far exceed the foals of any other birth rank In any given list of great winners winnersLet Let us now apply this test to the Derby mid St Leger for tlie past sixty years The two races give 1Jl winners including the deadheaters Harvester and St Cation for the Derby of 1SSJ Certain horses won both races and therefore are counted twice DERBY AND ST LEGER WINNERS 18601919 18601919First First foals Gay Crusader 2 Rock Sand 2 Wool AVInder Favonius total six winners winnersSecond Second foals Gainsborough 2 Spearmint Sain ¬ foin Ayrshire Mellon 4J Shotover Kingcraft Plair Athol 2 Hermit Troutbeck Cliallacombe Seabreeze Wenlock Pert Gomez St Albans total eighteen eighteenThird Third foals Aboynur Tagalio Orby Flying Fox 2 Donovan li Blue Gown Gladiatctir J Bayardo Wildfowler The Lamkin Robert the Devil lannotte total fifteen fifteenFourth Fourth foals Fifinella Lemberg Minorn Per ¬ simmon 2 Merry Hampton St Gatien Sir Bcvys George Frederick Dnncastcr Crcmormv Dunhar II Signorinetta Black Tester Tracery Prince Pala ¬ tine Pretty Polly Doricles Kilwarlin Dutch Oven Craig Millar Hawthornden Formosa Caller On otnl twentyfour Fifth foals Sunstur Cicero Sr Amant Or ¬ monde 2 Iroqnois 2 Kisber Hurry On Night Hawk Your Majesty Lord Clifden total twelve twelveSisth Sisth foals Pommern 2 Galteo Morn 2 Sir Visto 2 Harvester St Bhiise Kettledrum Kcy soe Rayon dOr Apology total twelve twelveSeventh Seventh foals Grand Parade Common 2 Scf ton Lord Lyoii 2 total six sixEighth Eighth foals Volodyovski Diamond Jubilee 2 Isinglass 2 Sir Hugo Btnd Or Thormanby Swynford Memoir Achievement total eleven elevenNinth Ninth fols Caractacus Sceptre Throstle La Fleche Ossian Petrarch Hannah The Marquis i total eight eightTenth Tenth foals Aril Patrick Ladns Silvio 2 Galopin Macaroni total six sixEleventh Eleventh foals Mariu Stuart total one oneTwelfth Twelfth foals Joddah total one oneSixteenth Sixteenth foals Pretender total one oneNUMBER NUMBER OF FOALS IN EACH BIRTH RANK RANKCounting Counting the dual winners twice the mares which bred tlie above 121 Derby and St Legcr victors produced 120S offspring distributed as fol ¬ lows s regards birth rank I should add that horses which were foaled abroad are counted as the last offspring of their respective dams for tho purpose of this investigation Thus Gladiateurs dam is only reckoned as having had three and Tra ¬ cerys dam four foals Favonius was the sole off ¬ spring of his dam Zephyr ZephyrAll All the other mares appearing in the Stud Book as brood marcs and enteriiiij into the data with which wo are concerned have had their full num ¬ ber of foals assigned to thorn up to 1010 which was the latest year for birth of a horse or mare qualified to take part in the Derby or St Legor of last year 1st foals 121 Uth foals HO HO2nd HO2nd 2nd foals 120 12th foals 13 13ird 13ird ird foals 115 ISth foals U U4th 4th foals 112 Hili foals v 21 21rth rth foals lOfl irth foals M Mtith tith foals 107i ICth foals 8 87th 7th foals 0 17lh foals C CSth Sth foals i ISth foals 9th foals S3 19th foals 1 130th 30th foals 71 71The The next step is to determine how each birth rank lias fulfilled its numerical obligations We can see at a glance that the winning first foals as judged by aggregates are beaten by every birth rank back to the seventh The eighth and ninth foals have also a higher winning incidence than the first foals But something more informative is required than can be gleaned from aggregates aggregatesTHE THE ANTICIPATED AND ACTUAL We want to know how far each birth rank has exceeded or fallen behind expectation Tlie answer may be obtained by multiplying tlie total number of foals in eaOli birth rank by 121 and dividing the iprodnco by 120S Having done this the expected winners and actual winners in each birth rank are placed side by Hide thus thusExpected Expected Actual Winners I 1st foills foills2nd C 2nd foals foals 1th foals foals5th 5th foals foalsfith fith foals foals7th 7th foals foalsSth Sth fouls fouls0th 0th fouls fouls10th 10th foals foalsllth llth foals foals12th 12th fouls fouls13th 13th foals foals4th 4th foals foalsnth nth foals foalslith lith foals 71 h foals foalsSth Sth foals foalsIJth IJth foals The numbers with which we are dealiiig arc somewhat small and hence the actual winners plot out into a not too regular curve Still they show so far as the Derby and St Legcr of the last sixty years arc concerned that first foals have been nt a marked disadvantages as compared with the second third fourth fifth and sixth offspring offspringTlie Tlie sqventh eighth rifntli and tenth come fairly closeto expectancy i e when the curve is leveled out to the mean between tlie seventh and eighth fonls and have done much better relatively and actually than first fonls We sec then from this investigation that the prejudice against first foals is not altogether unfounded It is of course true that a marc is less likely to be suitably mated in her first tliah in her sub ¬ sequent stud years but after allowing for this factor there still remains u balance against first foals as compared with the second third fourth f if Hi and sixth birth ranks ranksIt It may be urged that Biichan n first foal with a little luck would have won either tlie Derby or the St Legor that Hampton was a far bettor horse than bis younger brother Sir Bevys and that Albert Victor another first foal was quite as good as his brother George Frednrick This is all quite true But the answer is that you can only compare tilings which are comparable With each other otherIf If you want to bring in Buchan you must include nil the placed horses in the Derby and St Legor and tin same applies to Albert Victor which ran a dead heat with King of Forest for second place in the Derby to Favonius Tho inclusion of Hamp ¬ ton would entail the bringing in of a large number of oilier races and bests of horses and brood mares So the result in the end would probably remain pretty much the same as the figures given for the last sixty years of the Derby and St Legor
