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Analysis of 80th Kentucky Derby Determines Sensational Win Crowns Long Hard Campaign CampaignBy By EVAN SHIPMAN SHIPMANBELMONT BELMONT PARK Elmont L I N Y May 3 Musing on the events of an extraordinary unique week end spent in Louisville and pondering the many firsts established by Andy Crevolin s fine little Kentucky Derby winner Determine we will skim over his being the first gray and the first Californiaowned and trained colt to succeed in the Run for the Roses being merely fortuitous circumstances and we will postpone for the moment any consideration of Determines being the first of the get of the highly successful stallion Alibhai to win a classic event but we must say right away that here was the first time in the history of the American turf that a colt in constant hard training since July of the previous season had ever been brought up to our most famous most coveted fixture in winning form Deter ¬ mines clearcut victory last Saturday means many things to many people but its great significance for horsemen rests in its demonstration of a diminutive individual seemingly made of finely tempered steel and also let this be emphasized of training and con ¬ ditioning of the first order All credit to Determine bred in the Blue Grass by Dr Eslie Asbury and inheriting the best traits of a truly dis ¬ tinguished ancestry but the plaudits must include the brilliant western horseman Willie Molter who has kept his charge honed to a razor edge for an unparalleled length of time and to the jockey Ray York whose intelligent riding and complete sympathy with his mount have been of inestimable value to the trainer in realizing a project that would frankly have been described as foolhardy not so long ago Determine won the big race because he was clearly the best Some of those who finished behind the astonishing little gray came out of this Derby with excuses since particularly at the start the Derby was a shockingly rough race but we want to say immediately that no colt in the big field received any worse treatment at that rodeo break at the head of the long Churchill Downs stretch than Determine As they got away he was sloughed colts coming over on him from both the inside and the out ¬ side so that as York said afterward the boy was really lucky to stay in the saddle As we have told you in this space before Determine has the quick reflexes the per ¬ fect coordination of a lightweight boxer his agile recovery from the jam was in ¬ stant so that long before the field passed the finish line the first time around De ¬ termine was perfectly placed along the rail running a closeup third behind the pacesetting Hasty Road and Timely Tip the latter the chief villain in that atro ¬ cious exhibition at the start an incident that should rank with Money Brokers in ¬ terference with the unfortunate Native Dancer last year yearHasty Hasty Road Sets Pace PaceOnce Once the confused scramble at the start clarified itself the race was singularly un ¬ complicated Hasty Road paced and pushed by Timely Tip set a sustained clip Adams having the big Roman colt under a snug hold around the first turn and down the backstretch Determine also reserved but clear of the pack at all times was in the immediate offing while the others who were well placed for the crucial final half mile were Admiral Porter Black Metal and another son of Alibhai Hasseyampa Fish ¬ erman closer to the pace than had been expected was traveling with real power around the initial bend at that stage of the proceedings looking as if he would have considerable to say concerning the result As for the strong favorite Correlation another who had suffered seriously at the start he was running even higher off the ground than usual It was obvious to most of us that the strip did not suit Correlation at all and that he was unable to extend himself As early as the halfmile pole Correlation was clearly beaten nor was it simply a matter of the amount of ground the son of Free America would have to make up to reach the leaders he was just unable to reach out and cover the ground with the same strides that had taken him to the front in the recent Wood Memorial and in the Florida Derby DerbyThis This may be the place for us to insert a parenthetical paragraph concerning the special nature of the Churchill Downs strip for the Derby running The afternoon before for the Kentucky Oaks won by Fascinator the strip had an excellent cushion The weather however was un ¬ seasonably hot heavy and muggy the air promising rain at any time while the horizon was dark with threatening clouds On Friday rain fell all around Louisville but the track received only enough to lay the dust Overnight fearing the downpour that had been generally predicted the track superintendent rolled the strip so that even if rain did come it would main ¬ tain a firm bottom The rain rid not come For the Derby the strip was hard and rather cuppy completely unsuited to a soregoing colt like Correlation and per haps prejudicing the chances of some of the others as well Determine is at home over any variety of track Correlations connections were probably praying for rain Hasty Roads entourage on the other hand were praying just as hard for the immi ¬ nent rain it finally came in something like a cloudburst Sunday afternoon to hold off The association cannot be blamed for rolling the strip it was not done in order to smash any records but as a sensi ¬ ble precaution again t being flooded floodedGetting Getting back to our race Timely Tip shortened stride between the far turn and the stretch run and now York moved De ¬ termine up to tackle the frontrunning Hasty Road this pair taking the final bend on almost equal terms while behind them Hasseyampa and Goyamo were both close enough to make their presence felt should the leaders falter Another stretch duel such as had marked the running of the remarkable Derby Trial earlier in the week now appeared in prospect In a flash we were all aware that there was to be one big difference between the Derby Trial and the Derby This time Ray York on Deter ¬ mine drew his whip and used it hard The little gray answered the boys appeal like a boxer sensing a longsought opening in the closing rounds of a fight then and there delivering his Sunday punch Instantly Determine opened up a couple of lengths on Hasty Road drawing into the clear now where back on the Tuesday the pair had fought it out locked Then both York and Johnny Adams had refrained from whip ¬ ping now no holds were barred and De ¬ termine was already winging along in front at the threesixteenths pole poleRunnerUp RunnerUp Never Stops Trying TryingHasty Hasty Road to his great honor reeled at this challenge but rode with the blow the little colt had shot to the front but the big colt returned willingly to the fray his resolution admirable and bespeaking a stamina that he must have inherited from his Discovery dam Determine under vig ¬ orous but far from desperate handling maintained his lead past the furlong pole past the sixteenth pole and on the wire while behind him Hasty Road never stopped trying never really conceded de ¬ feat and the big fellow was actually closer to his midget conqueror at the end than he had been in the upper stretch where this fierce attack was first launched Well to the rear Hasseyampa plodded gamely along his wellmaintained sustained run assuring him the show award over Goyamo this one bothered again in the drive when Correlation now picking up beaten horses bore in badly through the stretch As far as Determine Hasty Road and Hasseyampa were concerned the Derby had been crystal clear always mind you excepting that dis ¬ graceful melee at the start startNow Now for the cold analysis of what took place First off York and Adams both rode brilliantly the former with a cool ap ¬ preciation of just what his mount could offer how to place him and when and where to make his decisive bid The boy followed the stables tactical plan to the letter the Derby representing exactly the strategy that had been mapped out by owner Crevolin trainer Molter and the jockey well in advance of the running Adams was compelled to go to the front sooner than he would have preferred it is true but that eventuality must have been foreseen and once in the van Hasty Road was rated by a master hand Adams judgment of pace his calculated nursing of his mounts resources being quite fault ¬ less For all Adams light touch on the reins Timely Tip did force Hasty Road at a time and at a pace that were sure to militate against the leader when Deter ¬ mine should come along to pick up the at ¬ tack but again that is a danger that a freerunning colt such as Hasty Road must always be prepared to deal with No riding no matter how skillful could pos ¬ sibly have aided Goyamo Correlation or Fisherman to finish closer than those colts actually did their jockeys just did not have enough horse under them on that par ¬ ticular afternoon afternoonA A breakdown by fractions of this 80th running of the Kentucky classic suggests that neither Determine nor Hasty Road were quite as sharp as they had been earlier in the week for the recordbreaking mile of the Derby Trial The astonishing length of time that Determine has been in full training was referred to earlier and it is likely that the formidable little warrior has at long last begun to show the effects of his unbroken campaign For all that De ¬ termines trainer and his jockey are agreed that his start in the gruelling Derby Trial was an absolute essential if he were to make good in the stables ambitions for the vastly more important race last Saturday SaturdayFirst First Effort at Churchill Downs DownsDetermine Determine who had never before raced at Churchill Downs or in the East had to have the feel of the strip quite different from those to which he has been accus tomed in California This was a calculated risk all a part of the tremendous gamble entailed in a Derby preparation and as with so much that Andy Crevolin has at ¬ tempted the risk was ultimately justified in the event As for Hasty Road we can hardly believe that he was better or fresher on Tuesday than he was for his great test on the week end although mind you that possibility certainly exists Unfortunately we did not see the Derby Trial and any anyContinued Continued on Page Forty Analysis of Derby Running By EVAN SHEPMAN Continued from Page Fire opinion concerning that race is based strictly on hearsay and on a close reading of the chart chartA A A A ATaking Taking these fractions into the pictorial terms descriptive of the race all of them belong to Hasty Road with the exception of Determines final time of 203 for the com ¬ pleted distance at all the other poles the giant son of Roman was in front Hasty Road had drawn the inside post position and he got out of there in a hurry once the doors opened We were among those who thought the big colt had veered out from the rail leaving the gate contributing to the jam in the first few yards but Ray York who was certainly in a better posi ¬ tion to know exactly what happened com ¬ pletely exonerates Hasty Road and Adams in his account of the incident Determines rider told us emphatically the next morn ¬ ing when we rehashed the Derby together that Hasty Road had run his first furlong straight and true along the rail Hasty Road then carried them the initial quarter in 23 a distinctly moderate clip consid ¬ ering how anxious everybody is to gain a favorable position in the run to the club ¬ house turn The next two furlongs round ¬ ing that turn were clocked in 24 for a first half in 47 still no exaggerated speed you will notice The third quarter was stepped in 24 for six furlongs in 112 slightly slower than good sprinters were running it that day Hasty Road still in front was at the mile in 137 and now in the next few strides after the accom ¬ plishment of that fourth quarter in 25 was vhere Determine collared the leader The final quarter was officially timed in 26 but from where the winner came the little gray shaded that by a couple of ticks ticksA A A A AAnd And so this was not a fast Derby Soirie critics will urge the distinctly moderate time and above all the final quarter in 26 as an argument attacking the class of Determine and Hasty Road as well as those who followed this pair and if we were judging them on the Derby as an isolated event we would be forced to agree In this case however we firmly maintain the value of both Determine and his runner up while for reasons given we refuse to condemn Correlation for his complete de ¬ feat According to our reasoning none but colts of the first order could have revealed the intense speed evident in the Derby Trial with its mile in 135 flat nor would any but the most courageous have run the last quarter of that mile locked in combat and without benefit of the whip Where the Derby completes the picture is in show ¬ ing us the stamina of this pair Determines style in the final two furlongs rather than his speed convincing this observer that dis ¬ tance is one thing that the little Alibhai colt need never worry about In accord ¬ ing Determine his due we believe that his entire threeyearold campaign must be taken into consideration this Derby merely the climax of a long and honor ¬ able series of races racesA A A A AIf If Saturday was a great day for Cali ¬ fornia it was a big occasion for Kentucky horsemen as well Determine long ago en ¬ deared himself to the native sons but the Blue Grass has every right to remind us that the tiny gray son of Alibhai Koubis by Mahmoud hails originally from the thoroughbred sports traditional cradle As a yearling Determine was one of many se ¬ lected at the Keeneland Sales by Crevolin whose keen eye for conformation and in ¬ dividuality has never received proper cred ¬ it The majority of yearling buyers are notoriously prejudiced in favor of size but even to one like Crevolin who does not share this superstition Determine on close examination must have appeared almost stunted at that age The little colts breeder recalls that on leaving the sales ring after his purchase of Determine Crev ¬ olin shook his head sadly saying I must have been standing in a hole when I select ¬ ed that one Quick as a flash Dr Asbury came back with If you want to turn him over for a profit Ill take him back at 3000 over his sales price How about it But Crevolins shrewd eye had caught some ¬ thing in the colt more important than size the Califorriian had his usual confidence in his own judgment and in his own luck and Determine of course journeyed west to his new home homeA A A A ANo No account of Saturdays brilliant race nor no mention of Andy Crevolins sensa ¬ tional luck is complete without the Derbys sequel the party in Bill Corums private rooms following the race With the festivi ¬ ties in full swing the telephone was hooked up to the track announcer out on the Coast at Bay Meadows and Crevolin lis ¬ tened to the calls that won him the 100 000 William P Kyne Handicap with Im bros that remarkable chestnut son of Polynesian picking up top weight of 127 pounds and shattering the Bay Meadows track record for nine furlongs in his im ¬ pressive score over Calumets Fleet Bird Trusting and the rest The crowd that had gathered around the owner of the Derby winner listened open stunned at the realization that here were two 100000 stakes going to one owner on the same afternoon something that never in the long annals of the turf had happened before and that may well never happen again Ben Jones and Mrs Jones were standing at Andys side and when the California his face streaming with perspiration called out On the back stretch Imbros in front by two Fleet Bird second I dont get the rest Calumets veteran trainer laughed and clapped him on the back saying Well concede it Andy well concede it gladly How can anybody stand in the way of such luck luckA A A A AFar Far into the night the celebration of this Derby and of that other fine race thousands of miles away across the conti ¬ nent continued unabated and Crevolins optimism fired with success assured us that on to Baltimore and the Preakness would be the stables marching orders Even as they heard him trainer Molter and jockey York silently shook their heads They knew that the Determine who had scored that afternoon had already if ever I so slightly turned the inevitable corner Anxious not to cast any hint of a shadow over this joyful occasion neither horse ¬ man spoke to the naturally jubilant owner what was in both their minds The next morning would be time enough for that And the great day over and now a mem ¬ ory Crevolin was quick to realize that his wonderful little colt one who we are all sure has many more fine races with which to astonish us at his indomitable courage his infallible competitive instinct has for the moment earned his rest This is far from the last of Determine and far from the last of the Crevolin luck they will iteep After that Derby day all of us 5olt owner trainer and colts admirers included need time to gather our wits settling gradually to earth again after our soaring visit to palms of the fantastic and impossible
