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REFLECTIONS By NELSON DUNSTAN CHURCHILL DOWNS Louisville Ky April 30r On Wednesday it was conceded that on paper five three yearolds would be favorites above all others to win the Kentucky Derby Hasty Houses strapping colt Hasty Road was added to the list when he staged a headtohead stretch battle with Andy Crevolins Determine the son of Alibhai who had won his six previous starts Win ¬ ning by a head Hasty Road was clocked in a dazzling 135 which lowered the track record by twofifths of a second A big handsome horse Hasty Road is a son of Roman and that is on everyones mind as they attempt to pick the winner Allie Reuben his owner says the only definite answer must await the Derby running but even with that we dare say he will have a strong following His Derby Trial opponent Determine the only gray colt in the race is small and courageous and his record in the Golden State has earned him a legion of admirers that increased after Tuesdays Derby Trial He won the Santa Anita Derby and the Bay Meadows Derby both at one and oneeighth miles so there is no question in our mind that he can hold his speed over one and one quarter miles milesA A A A AIn In the Derby there is always the chance of a horse dropping from the skies but even so we believe tomor ¬ rows renewal narrows to five Correlation Goyamo De ¬ termine Fisherman and Hasty Road Correlation did everything asked of him in the Florida Derby over a heavy racing strip and then won the Wood Memorial both at one and oneeighth miles His trainer N Three wit has brought him to the peak of condition and he will have Willie Shoemaker in the saddle The records Contention in Race Harrows Down to Five Speculation as to How Derby Will Be Run Correlation Goyamo Both Stretch Runners Derby Winner Must Meet Good Ones Later definitely say he is the one they will all have to beat Goyamo is a hard horse to figure for he has been a win ¬ ner at one and oneeighth miles in the Blue Grass Stakes and obviously improves with distance Woody Stephens looks for even a sharper effort at the Derby route So our choices are Correlation Goyamo and Determine but Fisherman winner of the Gotham in the sloppiest going would move up sharply if the track was other than fast Hasty Road could be the one to upset the applecart but as a threeyearold he has not won beyond the mile of the Derby Trial He does not take kindly to off going There is always speculation as to how the Derby will be run In many years there have been horses who im ¬ mediately went to the front and with their burning speed endeavored to pile up a sufficient lead to hold off those closing powerfully in the stretch Spy Song was such a horse and so too was Your Host who in 1950 was leading at the halfmile pole only to finish ninth Then there are the comefrombehind horses who make their bid in one surge from the head of the stretch to the finish A jockey may have specific orders from the trainer but when the pace is different from that anticipated the rider must use his own judgment In 1943 the oddson favorite Count Fleet justified jhe price by leading from end to end but the following year Pensive who was thir ¬ teenth in a field of 16 at the half worked his way up on the outside and then the quick thinking Eddie Arcaro shot him to the inside when the leaders swung wide entering the stretch Pensive closed with burning speed to win by four and a half lengths In 1947 Jet Pilot took the track to set his own pace and just lasted to stave off Phalanx who started sluggishly but was passing Ahorse after horse in his rush He missed by a short head Last years renewal was practically the same as that in 1947 for Dark Star immediately went to the front with Native Dancer in fourth position at the mile pole after a bump ¬ ing at the first turn Then came a thrilling stretch duel After closing the daylight between him arid the winner who had little left the Vanderbilt horse was beaten a short head headA A A A AWe We cannot discuss the tactics that trainers will em ¬ ploy with all the starters tomorrow Both Correlation and Goyamo are horses whp are likely to be in the ruck in the early running and then depend on their burst in the stretch to carry them to the front Fisherman is also a comefrombehind racer while Determine we under ¬ stand from West Coast advices and past performances bear them out is a horse who likes to have his head and run a race his own way Whether the winner of six straight races will follow that pattern in the impending event remains to be seen While Determines staying powers are under some suspicion in some quarters it seems safe to say that he will be up with the leaders in the early stages of the race Hasty Road is another on the suspect list bue he can be a hardhitting horse and will probably be running close to the leaders as far as he goes and it could be that he will go the entire one and onequarter miles of the Derby We doubt that any horse is going to steal the race although a swift early pace will probably be the order of the day Correlation CorrelationContinued Continued on Page SixtyThree REFLECTIONS REFLECTIONSBy By NELSON DUNSTAN Continued from Page SixtyFour SixtyFourand and Goyamo will be turning it on when the field turns for home In fact their riders are probably hoping for an early duel by their competitors for a swift pace is the kind that the comefrombehind horses like best when they turn for home homeA A A A AWhether Whether the Derby winner will go on to Triple Crown honors is something that only the future can answer Ths has been a very unusual year in that so many of the topnotchers had to be withdrawn due to injuries Turnto is retired permanently but in the races to come Porterhouse Ar tismo Double Speed Errard King Best Years Swift Sword and still others will be awaiting the victor at Louisville In a way this increases interest in the Preakness and the Belmont and other important stakes to follow Porterhouse is back in training and he is very likely to be one of who will be waiting at Baltimore when the Derby runners move up to Pimlico for the second leg of the Triple Crown Maha ¬ rajah was the last to be sent to the side ¬ lines As his setback was not of a serious nature we expect he will make his presence felt in the racing ahead If the Derby win ¬ ner should join the Triple Crown list he j will have overcome obstacles unlike that of any other three year old during recent years While the Derby will reflect staying powers up to one and onequarter miles the Belmont Stakes is something else for it is at one and onehalf miles
