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mJm REFLECTIONS by nelson dunstan CHURCHILL DOWNS, Louisville, Ky., May 1. — The Kentucky Derby is •shaping up fast, so fast that some are narrowing it to a race between Phalanx and Faultless. They will both be powerful contenders, in fact, they might run one-two, one way or the other. But they have to run around that track and in a year such as this anything could happen. We can think of five who could cause an upset, just as others in former years have taken it on the lam and stayed in front down the stretch that leads to the winners circle and the glory that goes with the victory. Bullet Proof, On Trust, Riskolater, Jet Pilot and Star Reward have all turned in efforts this year that demonstrate they might make trouble for the more highly-regarded candidates. From the early Derby favorite, Cosmic Bomb is now a "dark" horse of the race. He had good early speed in the Derby Trial and that race may have done him a world of good. In the Trial, he went on to a mile and a quarter in 2:07 Vs. a good move as he was blocked by horses that were "pulling up" after passing the finish line. Once clear, he was full of run and he might be full of it again on the week-end. In our book it is still an open Derby. AAA The weather and track conditions are just as hard to predict as the Derby winner. On Wednesday afternoon the heavy rainstorm drenched the track and another heavy downpour of short duration on Thursday made it questionable if the track would be fast when the field goes to the post on Saturday afternoon. Sunshine tomorrow and Saturday might make a fast track possible. While some of the starters have proven their ability in muddy or sloppy going, an "off" condition is conducive to surprises. Exterminator won at prodigious odds over a muddy strap in 1918. In the following year, the Tomorrows Derby No Two-Horse Race Many Have Chance to Upset Favorites Winter Book Favorites Fared Badly Some Derby Winners Did Well in Stud favorite, Eternal, could not untrack himself on the heavy track and the honors went to the second choice, Sir Barton, first of those to win the "Triple Crown." In the next year, or 1920, Paul Jones was a longshot winner on a slow track, as the favorite Damask tired in the stretch to finish fourth. Clyde Van Dusen 1929 and Hoop Jr. 1945 beat the favorites over a muddy strip, and just last year Assault made a show of the large field, winning by eight lengths over a slow track. Mud would not stop Jet Pilot, Bullet Proof or Phalanx, but Ben Jones is hoping for a fast track for Faultless. AAA Operating a "winter book" on the Derby is said to be a hazardous occupation. On the other hand, the player has had none the best of it, for from 1919 to 1946 there was no winter book in 1945 only four of the 25 favorites have justified their selection in the early months of the year. Time again, long shots in the winter book upset the applecart, Paul Jones 1920 opening at 50 to 1; Behave Yourself 1921 40 to 1; Burgoo King 1932 30 to 1 and Bold Venture 1936 at 40 to 1. The late Col. E. R. Bradley had a standing offer of 4 to 1 that no player could name a starter in a Derby within a week after the nominations were announced. At first that might appear a good wager on the part of the player, but simple arithmetic would soon reveal that the Colonel had all the best of it. On a "pay-or-play" basis, the winter book operators also have the edge, for, if the horse you wager on does not start, you lose just the same. In 1940, Bimelech closed at 7 to 10 in the winter book, while Gallahadion opened at 80 to 1 and closed at 40 to 1, and you will recall that Gallahadion won, paying 2.40 in the mutuel pay-off. AAA "Do Derby winners make good sires? The answer is that some do and others do not, just as in any other stake race. It has often been said that the Belmont Stakes is preferred by breeders for the reason that the distance is at a mile and a half, same as the Epsom Derby. To win the "Triple Crown," a three-year-old must necessarily triumph in both the Derby and Belmont and since Sir Barton, who was considered a failure in stud, won in 1919, Gallant Fox 1930, Omaha 1935, War Admiral 1937, Whirlaway 1941, Count Fleet 1943 and Assault 1946 have been "Triple Crown" winners. Confining it to the past 10 years, War Admiral, leading sire in 1945, is one of the most successful stallions in the country today and high hopes are held for Whirlaway and Count Fleet. Horses who did not win the "Triple Crown," but did grace the winners circle at Churchill, went on to fine stud accomplishments. Notable in this group is Ben Brush, winner in 1896, and who later established his own line. Reigh Count and Bold Venture sired Derby winners when sent to stud. AAA Derby notes: The Churchill Downs property embraces 180 acres of land and includes 2,475 clubhouse boxes, 457 grandstand boxes, and 185 stadium boxes . . . When discussing the "Kentucky" mint julep they tell you that "One is enough, two is too many, and three is not half enough." . . . You can get 7 to 1 here that Whirlaways Derby record of 2:01% will not be equaled and 15 to 1 it will not be broken . . . Last years wagering on the Derby came to ,202,474 and believe it or not it was only 8,300 in 1908 . . . More than 5,000 people will be in the employ of Churchill Downs on the week-end.
