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- y ► I ■ Weighing In By EVAN SHIPMAN Chart Analysis Tells Derby Story Fractions Show Dancers Speed Dark Star Well Rated Out on Top JAMAICA, L. I., N. Y., May 4.— Confined to a hotel room last Saturday, after dropping a decision to grippe, we were forced to watch both the Kentucky Derby and our own proper stint, the Gallant Fox Handicap, here on Long Island, from a television screen. Not ideal, by any manner or means, but, under the circumstances, it had to serve for us as for a great many of our readers. So much of our time this spring has been devoted to Native Dancer, that we may be forgiven for leading off with a few remarks concerning the gray colts gallant attempt at Louisville behind the surprising Dark Star, a Derby candidate too quickly dismissed last March in the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park. But to get back to Native Dancer. We believe that some aspects of his race, important aspects, may have been obscure to those who, like us, watched this Kentucky Derby from a distance, and even to those fortunate ones who were actually on the spot at Louisville. Sometimes a true analysis must await a breakdown of the chart, and sometimes the remarks of jockeys quoted in the press only add to the confusion attendant on an instant intepretation of a race where a great deal is happening all at once. The chart, we find, is a sober witness, while a disappointed and rather inarticulate boy can be excused for misleading insistent questioners. Eric Guerin, who hardly ever says anything, has been quoted as saying that Native Dancer "just wouldnt run" for him last Saturday. The only explanation of such a statement is that the boy wanted to be let alone, didnt want to talk about the race or remember it. You will grant that, for Guerin, the hours immediately following the running of this Derby must have been miserable enough, and every question must have brought back to his mind just the picture he was trying to erase. Defeat is never easy to take, but defeat on a eolt who is supposed to be "unbeatable" is humiliating. It would require the poise and self confidence of a mature man to cope with the queries that were put to young Guerin, or to parry them. He had done his best, you may be sure, and we ean find no fault with what he did, but, even in victory — even had he won, instead of losing the most important race of his short career — we would hardly have expected a cool dispassionate analysis of events from this source. The fact is, you see, that Native Dancer did run, ran magnificently. Never during the two seasons that Alfred Vanderbilts great gray has charmed and impressed the racing public has he run better, or as well. Do not let his defeat on Saturday blind you to Native Dancers true accomplishment, because it was remarkable, disposing once and for all of the legend that he could not "go a distance" and attesting, as never before, to his admirable speed and courage. Here, the chart speaks plain, while the babble of voices, high pitched from the drama of the great event, contradictory in the heat and excitement of winning or losing, fades to silence. Dark Star was the winner, the front-running winner, and never has a colt set and maintained such a pace from end to end of the mile and a quarter Derby course. Harry Guggenheims Royal Gem n. colt deserves, and will receive, the utmost credit for a race that disposed of all but one challenge before these even reached his flank, and Dark Stars present fame consists in turning back that one final and belated bid when Native Dancer eventually reached the pacemaker midway of the home stretch. Now let the chart tell its story. Dark Stars Derby was run in 2:02, time only three-fifths of a second off the record for that event set by Whirlaway a dozen years ago. All the fractions belong to Dark Star, since he was in the lead at every pole, and the break-down by quarters is: :235i, :24, :24*6, :24*s, :25$£. There is no need to insist that this was a beautifully rated performance. The sustained speed speaks for itself. Behind Dark Star, things were not so simple. Native Dancer, as we aU know, was in serious trouble rounding the first turn, he and Money Broker knocking each other off stride at that point. Dark Stars race, as revealed by the fractions, is classic in its simplicity. Native Dancers Derby, on the other hand, was condi- Continued on Page Thirty-Six S WEIGHING IN I By EVAN SHIPMAN Continued from Page Two tioned by the fact of that early trouble, showing blistering: speed at stages where, £3 could his jockey have called the turn, he £ would have been on the bit. %n You have seen that Dark Star ran his ►j initial half in :47%. Native Dancer, be-"S cause of the first turn jam, required 50 * seconds for his first half. Dark Star, corner fortably on the head-end, ran the third quarters in 2425, and that is stepping right O along, but Native Dancer in a desperate w move to gain position, ran those two fur-P longs in an astonishing 23 seconds flat. "" That is as fast as horses travel, and it is 5 why Guerins statement that Native Dance cer "just wouldnt run" is nonsense. Dark O Star and Native Dancer sped the fourth quarter in an indentical :24z5. The final O quarter, with Dark Star staving off Native 5 Dancers challenge by a head, was timed U in :2525 for the winner, and in :25 or a shade faster for Native Dancer. It all boils down to an evenly rated, a superbly rated, 2 10 furlongs for Dark Star, and a race ■j where Native Dancers astounding third q quarter and wonderfully sustained fourth and fifth quarters were only found wanting in the balance by so very little, so tragedically little. So what was Native Dancer doing back there? Why did he have to be one of the pack as it hit the first turn No use crying over spilt milk now, and its easy enough to "second guess" the race, but he has always raced from behind, and has always shown a tendency to "pull himself up" when in front, considering Correspondents reputation, it was plausible to expect plenty of pace. The obvious tactics for Guerin were to keep in the immediate offing, but to time his real bid for the late stages, when the early clip would have told on the pacemakers. Alas for plans. Native Dancer was delayed on the first turn, then had to extend himself to the utmost in an effort to regain position. In the meantime, Correspodent failed to "soften up" Dark Star, the Calif ornian having all he could to keep the leader in sight. Given the unexpected class shown by Dark Star, it is easy to see how Native Dancer was beaten. The explanation does not involve any criticism of the gray colts jockey, nor does it diminish Native Dancers true prestige. He was beaten by another good colt, and beaten because he got in trouble in a race that is always rough for anybody not in the clear. Native Dancer, you know, could have been beaten in any one of his last half dozen starts. It was just bad luck, after a lot of good luck, that defeat happened to come in the one race that draws the attention of the entire sport loving world, here and abroad.
