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Thirty-Six Choices Triumphed in Derby Percentage of .48 Is Much Higher Than What Over-All Picture Usually Presents CHURCHILL DOWNS, Louisville, Ky., May 6. — Favorite players have slightly less than an even chance of seeing their faith rewarded in this seventh-fifth Kentucky Derby. The precentage of winning Derby favorites in the 74 previous runnings of the Churchill Downs classic is .48, with 36 public choices finding their way to the winners circle. This is considerably better than the over-all picture of all races run during the year, but no better is to be expected of a weight-for-age stake. The longshot players, and they are in the majdrity in a crowd such as the 100,000 plus expected to pack Churchill Downs today, can take encouragement from the fact that in the most recent 20 Derbys only nine favorites have won, while eight winners returned more than 5-to-l. Two of the favorites in those years went into the Derby with records fully as impressive as any public choice in the history of the stake, including Citation. When the late Col. Edward Riley Bradleys Bimelech went postward at 2-to-5 in the Kentucky Derby of 1940, he had an unbeaten record stretching over two seasons, but it didnt help him in his effort to turn back the late Mrs. Ethel V. Mars Gallahadion, who paid 2.40. Gallahadion had won 80 and no races at all as a two-year-old. He won only one more race in seven starts in 1940 after the Derby. However, Gallahadion finished in front of Bimelech again in the Arlington Classic when both were beaten by Sirocco. Brevity Fails dt Odds-On The late Joseph E. Widener s Brevity was backed down to 4-to-5 when he was beaten a "lip" by Morton L. Schwartzs Bold Venture in 1938. Brevity had won the Flamingo Stakes in track record time at Hialeah and became the favorite for the Derby when the winter choice, Hollyrood, went amiss and was declared. Bold Venture went on to win the Preakness in another driving finish from Granville and then broke down. Bold Ventures best son, King Ranchs Assault, paid 8.40 after winning the 1946 Derby. Maine Chance Farms Lord Boswell, Knockdown and Perfect Bahram were favored that year at slightly better than even money, though Assault had won the Experimental and Wood Memorial, but finished fourth in the Derby Trial. Lord Boswell had won the Blue Grass Stakes and Knockdown had taken the Santa Anita Derby. Calumet Farms Pensive, who paid 6.20 after winning the 1944 Derby, was second choice in the wagering despite that long price. Greentree Stables Stir Up, who finished third behind Pensive and Broadcloth, was favored at .40 to , on the strength of victories in the Flamingo, Experimental and Wood Memorial. Bradley Winners Outsiders Belair Studs Fighting Fox was favored for the 1939 Derby, also at .40 to , after winning the Wood, but the winner was Herbert M. Woolfs Lawrin, who had won the Flamingo and finished second to The Chief in the Derby Trial. Lawrin paid 9.20 and besides Fighting Fox, Bull Lea and Menow were also preferred to him in the wagering market. The Bradley silks triumphed on outsiders in 1932 and 1933. Burgoo King, who was coupled with Brother Joe, won in 1933, paying 3.24 there was breakage to the penny in those days while Tick On was the favorite. The following year, Brokers Tip beat Head Play in the famous "Don-neybrook finish" that resulted in jockeys Don Meade and Herb Fisher being suspended. Brokers Tip paid 9.86, a short price for a maiden, particularly if it could have been foreseen that he was never to win another race. In 1947, the year after Mrs. Elizabeth N. Grahams Maine Chance Farm trio failed as favorites, her Jet Pilot scored a thrilling triumph over C. V. Whitneys favored Phalanx and paid 2.80. Jet Pilot finished unplaced in the Preakness and was soon retired. It will be seen that colts have gone post-ward in the Derby with gilt-edged credentials and failed to win. But it will also be noted that hindsight tells us that the public has not always selected the right favorite, subsequent events proving that Assault, Lawrin and Bold Venture, at least, won on their merits.
