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I FUTURE BOOK FAVORITES MEAN LITTLE j I IN KENTUCKY DERBY HISTORY _J Favorites in the opening quotations in the future hooks on the Kentucky Derby have not been so "hot," if we "look at the record," as Al Smith used to say. The genial New Yorker ran about as well as the choices, but finished second at least. The table appended has a lot of . "meat" in it for those who delve into the betting ring shortly after they announce the "futures" on the big Louisville race. In the past twenty years only three horses which opened as favorites won the big race. They also went to the post as the "peoples choice," thereby doubling up in service to the fans. Six others opened, as favorites and held their position right into the race, but they didnt win. As a matter of fact they could not even finish in the money, four of them winding up fourth, one tenth and the other a stiff twelfth. The three heroes of the future book betting and the race itself were Gallant Fox, Reigh Count and Morvich. The first-named was actually the last opening favorite in the future books to win the Derby and his year was 1930. Since then five of the initial favorites never got to the post, one of them ran second and two others fourth. During a score of years of Derby future books the best bet has been Paul Jones, and it is questionable in view of his mutuel price whether he was a good future play under the pay or play system. Fans got a fraction over 16 to 1 on him in the iron men, and he opened in the future books at 50 to 1. He paid 4.40 Derby Day when the player was at least sure that he would line up with the field. Bold Venture, Brokers Tip, Flying Ebony and Behave Yourself opened at 40 to 1. Derby Day Bold Venture paid 3.00; Brokers Tip, 9.86; Flying Ebony, .30, and Behave Yourself, 9.30. In the past twenty years Equipoise, Reigh Count, Damask and Eternal opened at 4 to 1. Equipoise was an absentee from the race, Reigh Count won and Damask and Eternal finished fourth and tenth, respectively. Four 4 to 1 opening favorites and one winner — 25 per cent. The public may have had tough sledding in the future books, but they certainly have hit the bullseye when it comes to jumping on the proper horse on Derby Day. Nine out of the last twenty post favorites have come romping home in front, nearly fifty per cent of being correct. However, they had a slight edge during the first decade when they were right on the fifty-fifty mark with five winners out of ten Derbys. From 1929 to 1938 they were right only four times out of ten races. The following table is illuminating in more ways than one, and the fans who study it have at their finger tips the condensed history of the Kentucky Derby for the past twenty years: Opening Opening - Mutuel Favorite Odds Winner Odds Price —1938— Stagehand 6-1 Non-starter Lawrin 20-1 9.20 —1937— Pompoon 8-1 Ban second *War Admiral 12-1 $ 5.20 —1936— Hollyrood 6-1 .Non-starter Bold Venture 40-1 ."..3.00 —1935— Chance Sun. .... . 6-1.. Non-starter Omaha 8-1 0.00 —1934— Mata Hari 10-1 Kan fourth ♦Cavalcade 20-1 $ 5.00 —1933— ♦Ladysman 8-1 Ban fourth Brokers Tip 40-1 .....*. 9.86 —1932— Top Flight 8-1 Non-starter Burgoo King 30-1 .3.24 —1931— Equipoise 4-1 Non-starter Twenty Grand 6-1 $ 3.76 __1930— Gallant Fox 10-1 Won *GalIant Fcr 10-1 .38 High Foot 10-1 Ban fourteenth Flying Heels 10-1 ..Non-starter Dedicate 10-1 Non-starter Desert Light 10-1 Non-starter —1929— ♦Blue larkspur... 7-1 Ban fourth Clyde Van Dusen 10-1 .00 —1928— ♦Beigh Count 4-L Won ♦Reigh Count 4-1 .12 —1927— Osmand 6-1 Ban second *Whiskery 20-1 $ 6.80 —1926— Pompey 5-1 Ban fifth *Bubbling Over...... .10-1 $ 5.80 —1925— ♦Quatrain 6-1 Ban twelfth Flying Ebony 40-1 $ 8.30 _1924— Sarazen 6-1 Non-starter *BIack Gold 25-1 $ 5.50 Wise Counsellor.. 6-1 Non-starter —1923— ♦Enchantment .... 8-1 Ban sixth Zev 121 0.40 —1922— • ♦Morvich 5-1 ...Won ♦Morvich 5-1 .$ 4.40 —1921 — ♦Tryster 5-1 Ban fourth Behave Yourself 40-1 9.30 —1920— ♦Damask 4-1 Ban fourth Paul Jones 50-1 4.40 —1919— ♦Eternal 4-1 Kan tenth Sir Barton 30-1 $ 7.20* ♦Post favorite.
